Death by bear is far more likely in Japan than in North America, if the data are boldly interpreted and a few assumptions made, and this has probably been the case for more than a century. The Japanese bear seems to be a statistically significant outlier in the ursine world.
The math has been much the same regardless of what’s happening in the country. Whether the human population is rising or falling, whether Japan is unusually warm or cold, bears have been attacking and killing people at an alarming rate, from the remote corners of Hokkaido to the rural villages of Honshu.
Evidence suggests that the recent uptick — with 13 people killed by bears so far in the fiscal year that began April 1 — is less of an anomaly and more of a return to the historical range, and that the baseline for killer bears in Japan is exceptionally high. The records being set now might not be records.
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